Covid infection rate higher in Karnataka than national average

KEY STORY

•  With the number of daily new Covid-19 cases increasing every day, the infection rate in Karnataka has edged past the national figure.

• The R-Naught (R-0) value, which represents the average number of people that a single infected person can transmit that disease to, stands at 1.66 for the state as of March 24, while the national figure is 1.53. The R-Naught value has crossed the 1 mark in 19 states across the country.

• Epidemiologists and virologists now fear that second coronavirus surge could be worse than the first and stress that the government needs to pay immediate attention to containment measures.

• The case fatality rate too may see a rise because of the burden on the health care system with rising cases, they add.

• Dr Giridhara Babu, Professor of Epidemiology at the Public Health Foundation of India and member of the Covid Techincal Advisory Committee explained, “An R-0 of 1.65 means that for every 10 people infected, a further 16.5 will be infected by them. This is not a good situation to be in.”

• Experts say there are many reasons for this surge. While some point out that there have been significant changes in the virus itself, with data showing the growing presence of more infectious strains, others argue that people not following Covid-appropriate behaviour is the main reason.

• However, renowned virologist Dr V Ravi, who is the nodal officer for genome sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 at NIMHANS, and is part of the international scientific advisory board for Russia’s Sputnik vaccine, says the data available is not enough to say that the rise in cases is due to the “double mutation variant” and refers to a “variant of concern”.

• Even a study, published recently by NIMHANS in the scientific journal MedRxiv, found four major SARS-CoV-2 variants circulating in Bengaluru.

• Of them, the B.1.36 variant has the highest prevalence, he pointed out. “The variant was seen in 45 per cent of the swab samples which NIMHANS subjected to genomic sequencing. The B.1.36 type cannot be called a variant yet, as its significance is yet to be studied,” Dr Ravi, who spearheaded the study, said.

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• However, Dr Babu said that it’s clear that the UK variant has reached the level of community spread in Punjab. “In addition, it may have spread to many other states. In Maharashtra, where the government itself has admitted that 15-20 per cent of samples sent for genome sequencing are of the new double mutant variety, there are several worrying clusters in that state where mutant viruses are spreading at a fast rate.”

• Meanwhile, the experts say that a lockdown may not be a solution but instead, the government should now impose specific curbs on any kind of gatherings, be it election campaigns or celebration festivals and fairs.

• The number of people in indoor gatherings should be reduced, open markets should be provided and schools, which can do away with exams, can also be closed, they suggest. The government should also ramp up the vaccination drive and permit inoculation for any person who is 18 years old and above, they added.

• “People need to act responsibly so that we don’t have to see a lockdown-kind of situation. Also, the government should put in all efforts to stop any superspreader events from being held,” Dr Babu said.

• “Emergency use authorisation must be given to all internationally available vaccines with established efficacy and safety. In other words, Pfizer, Moderna, Johnson and Johnson, Novavax and the Russian and Chinese vaccines must be accepted and utilized even as bridge studies for these vaccines are being conducted. This is done with Covishield too,” he said.