INTERVIEW | Expecting third Covid wave to peak by mid-February in Karnataka: Sudhakar

KEY STORY

As the number of new Covid-19 cases continues to surge, Health Minister Dr K Sudhakar says travellers coming from high-risk countries and neighbouring states which have high case load are the main reason for it. He also said they are expecting the third wave to peak by mid-February. Excerpts from an interview:

What are the main reasons for the sudden surge?

We have 38,507 active cases in the state of which 32,157 are in Bengaluru Urban district. So, about 83.5 per cent of the active cases are in Bengaluru. Travellers coming from high-risk countries and neighbouring states which have high case load are the main reason for the surge in Karnataka. To check this, we have decided to further strengthen screening of inter-state travellers at entry points like railways stations and bus stations similar to airports. We will also request the Railway Ministry to make screening of travellers mandatory at boarding points.

When is the wave likely to peak and how long is it likely to take for the situation to come under full control?

The upsurge of infection is happening in cities where Omicron is the prevalent strain. The steeper the rise, the shorter the wave is likely to be, as seen in other countries. Like in the UK and Denmark, it is receding now. In South Africa, too, it stayed for a month. But we can’t say anything clearly as it depends on our population density, vaccination coverage, etc. We are expecting the third wave to peak by mid-February.

So, how prepared are we to handle the situation?

After the pandemic hit us, the health infrastructure has been significantly ramped up in the state. We have augmented our capacity, especially in critical care. The number of ICU beds in Karnataka before Covid was only 725. Currently, the state has 3,877 ICU beds in government medical colleges and government hospitals — an increase of 5-6 times. There were 4,847 oxygenated beds before Covid. This has now increased to 28,447, and regular beds have increased from 41,378 to 50,629. Pre-Covid, government hospitals and medical colleges had an oxygen capacity of 320 MT, which we augmented to about 1,200 MT. During the second wave, oxygen logistics was a huge challenge — the number of cylinders before Covid was 2,180, but has increased to 13,588 cylinders now. The number of oxygen concentrators has gone up from 585 before Covid to 6,511.

Is there an increase in hospitalisation after the surge?

Presently, the hospitalisation rate is around 4-5 per cent. However, even if the rate of hospital admissions is lower compared to the second wave, the Omicron variant, which is highly transmissible and spreads faster than the Delta variant, may lead to a rise in admissions in absolute numbers, burdening the critical health infrastructure for a few days or weeks. But people need not unnecessarily panic as most cases, especially those fully vaccinated, don’t need hospitalisation.

When will we be able to achieve 100 per cent double-dose vaccination?  

The first dose coverage stands at 98.8% and the second dose coverage is about 80.8%. I think people had become complacent about the second dose after the second wave subsided. With a surge in cases now, more people are coming forward to get the second dose. We should be able to achieve 100% coverage in the next few weeks.

Why is there a delay in setting up genome sequencing labs in the districts?  

Our government had proposed to set up six genome sequencing labs in Bengaluru, Mysuru, Shivamogga, Hubballi, Mangaluru, and Vijayapura. Genome sequencing can be conducted only in labs approved by Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomic Consortia (INSACOG) as it requires expert facilities and lab equipment. We also need trained personnel including technicians, scientists and data entry operators to run the labs. We have received approval for four labs at Kalaburgi Institute of Medical Sciences, Mysore Medical College and Research Institute, Belagavi Institute of Medical Sciences, and the Bowring and Lady Curzon Medical College and Research Institute, and all necessary equipment have been installed.

Is there any strategy to ensure we test specifically for Omicron instead of the current system of sending samples for genome sequencing from cluster cases?

We need to understand that genomic sequencing is not like the RT-PCR test and not all Covid-positive samples are suitable for it. Due to several factors, sequencing takes about 5-8 days. The sequence requires over 300 samples to initiate the process. Only Covid-positive swab samples with Cycle Threshold (CT) value below 25 qualify for genomic sequencing, as the viral load will be higher in those with low CT value. Considering these factors, it will be difficult to do targeted testing for Omicron. However, all those coming from high-risk countries are being tested for the variant.

The Congress is holding a padayatra from January 9 despite the government prohibiting political rallies and events. Your views?  

The government is not against the padayatra. It is their democratic right to hold protests. But the Congress should rethink whether it is appropriate to hold the padayatra when Covid cases are surging and the third wave is looming. Can’t they postpone and hold the protest after two months? That is all we are asking.

Is there any possibility of imposing a lockdown if the positivity rate/cases continue to increase?

As of now, there is no such proposal. Our ultimate aim is to keep the fatality rate low. We will do whatever it takes to achieve that.